We are just about to enter, but Europe is falling apart. It’s a Turkish attitude to put off things for a long time; and by the time we reach peak levels the conditions change. Europe is on the verge of a collapse. Why?

Just at the time we are leaning against the EU door, something we have not been very willing to do in the last 40 years, and whose process we did not speed up, the paints of the door are falling off, so to speak. Europe is on the verge of a collapse. Why? “No” is the most likely outcome of the French referendum on May 29. According to researches, it is about 52 percent. The [Jacques] Chirac administration has created an environment of a confidence vote for itself by overstraining the “yes” votes. This counterinteraction that will produce political instability, is the beginning of objection to the enlargement of Europe. The referendum debate generally has been on Turkey. France does not want to settle within a new conjuncture and does not want new members. By saying “no,” France rejects the essence and institutional structure of Europe, forms the main axis of the EU project along with Germany. The collapse of the French leg will also drag the Netherlands along with it. How will an EU with a broken backbone claim to be a continental power? On one side, [German Chancellor Gerhard] Schroeder, whose party lost an election in North-Rhine Westphalia (NRW) after 40 years, is fuming. Germany is heading towards a big chaos and everyone is involved in an election that is expected to be held in fall. Yesterday’s headline in the German newspaper TAZ: “Schroeder wants to be chancellor!” If Schroeder calling an early election in fall does not govern Germany, then who will? If the Germans have a big and strong vision of Europe, this will emerge in this election anyway. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), representing the isolationists and introverts, is after shallow German interests. And it will base its election campaign on “let’s not admit Turkey.” The calculation of those who want the election between September 11 and 18 is to hamper Turkey’s negotiation process. The CDU insisting on “privileged partnership” also threatens Turkish voters with the dual citizenship law. Chaos in the political regimen and institutional disintegration on the Germany-France line seems inevitable. More nationalist views are aspiring to power. Nationalism hits a big blow to the EU dream. The EU dream fades away. Italy on the other side becomes the cover of The Economist magazine as the “Sick Man of Europe.” The Britain of [Prime Minister Tony] Blair, who barely won the election will hold a referendum in 2006. Do you think they will say “yes” to this picture? The problems of economic stagnation and unemployment in Europe are absolutely enormous. The population of these three countries I have mentioned is aging. Today, the number of people who need to be taken care of in Germany is 2 million, and this will be 2.5 million by 2010. The insurance bugdet for the elderly will increase from 1 billion euros to 5.6 billion. [Der] Spiegel made a cover with the headline “What should be done to the grandmothers?” In 2030, those over 50 years will make up 60 percent of total population. Europe looks like an old apartment complex, in which old grumpy people live, with its collapsed infrastructure, social state system, worn out buildings with the paintings falling off. “The euro,” the only profit maker in Europe with low energy to renew itself, seems as if it is going to lose prestige. If “no” emerges from France and the Netherlands, the economy will head for the worse. From hollowization-weary Europe, investments and companies are also escaping to the East. Europe that cannot create a new spirit has also failed to create a leader to undertake the role of a continent state. It was defeated by its own shallow and nationalist viewpoints and surrendered to the nation-state villager mentality. The EU was a continental project. The project to stand up as a single Europe before the world blew up big time. The rage of old Europeans is the desire for isolation from the changing world. All right, what will Turkey do now? It is obvious that the EU dream will suffer a blow in the short run. In a world with changing dynamics, Turkey’s gotta do what it gotta do. With the chance of being a central country in Eurasia, it should learn to stand on its own feet. Political decisions to integrate with society and the ability to implement social dynamics and vision are required. A Turkey closely watching the region it is in, and the world, could succeed better than a Europe insisting on the views of its institutions, the remnants of the 19th century, because its cultural values and youth energy are constructive dynamix. The urgency of thorough reforms is obvious. Europe could not combine its body and mental energy. If Turkey can succeed in using its body, mind and spririt energy like a joint river, there are many things it can offer to the world. That as a matter of fact, is the subject of another article. May 25, 2005 05.26.2005 Europe is Collapsing Dear Nevval, i really loved this one, it relates to my own anger and fear. There is that much stupidity and that much trash of civilizations in Europe. Yes, it seems that, with high probability, we will collapse. However, while you will put a stone on our grave, we will be looking what happened. We are very experienced in collapsing. This case of collapse will be analyzed like all the others before. Then, we may look for Turkey. She’s very loyal and probably will not have changed her geographic position. See you later Hans-Peter Dear Nevval Sevindi: First, I’m happy I found your site. Very good source for news about Turkey. Thanks. Second, I enjoyed your article. And to get right to the point, after giving it lots of thought, you know I really think general opinion has it back to front. As time goes by, Europe will need Turkey more than Turkey needs Europe. (And I think you’re saying that in your article) Some are thinking this is like joining a country club. Many Europeans won’t mind Turkey joining cause they can do some of the gardening and clean the club house. But after a while, the members will be so old and stuck with progress stifling bureaucratic laws and a heavy load of pension and retirement payouts that Turkey will be one of the few countries in the EU capable of doing anything! Dynamic is the word that comes to mind. If Turkey can continue to make its way positively on some huge social and economic issues, they’re on their way to good things, don’t you think? Thank you for taking the time to read this. Regards, Errol Somay Richmond, VA USA Dear Nevval, Thanks for your message. As to the French vote, there may be much to say of course. There will be much rumour. This is necessary to discuss the issue, however, also much nonsense will appear. Analysis may begin with the fact, that we have an economic crisis linked to globalization. This is coincident with an upcoming demographic crisis, and there is some aggregation and mutual reinforcement of these problems. You already mentioned this in your last article. The point here is that societies in France or Germany have still to accept some consequences, in other words, some necessary changes in legislation and social systems – whereas some others like Britain and Sweden have adapted themselves more successfully as yet. In France, more extreme leftists focused on a “fight against globalization”, of which they feel to fight the EU-constitution is a part. In this, they joined the far-rightists, which are against EU and globalization (and Turkeys EU-accession) for the reason of “cultural purity” or national interest (but they are usually very inconcrete regarding what this interest shall be). Such left-right constellations are quite normal, but in times of economic crisis, they may become dangerous. This is because large numbers of common people are in fear of their jobs and income and join a “No”-coalition which they feel is a “No” to the things they fear. We know this phenomenon of the “joining extremes” very well from German history, where it once has destroyed the “Weimar Republic” (1918-1933) and paved the way to the Nazi regime (1933-1945). (Therefore, Ms. Merkel marks the right-wing position regarding Turkey herself, letting no room for an autonomous right-wing movement to use the topic successfully. She will do that as long as public opinion on Turkey has not changed. However, in the end she will, with high probability, not block Turkeys accession. She (or CDU/CSU) may cause some delay, but Turkeys final success will not depend on this, but on her political and economic performance in the process, and perhaps on her success in promoting Turkish culture in the broad sense.) Also in France (and Germany etc.), success mainly depends on socio-economic reforms. As to the EU-institutions, some regulations now implied in the constitution may be applicated by inter-governmental treaties. The functioning of the institutions themselves will perhaps be slightly disturbed, especially if the Dutch also vote No, but they will continue to work. There will be much more discussions. This morning, i read a statement of FM Abdullah Gül, who mentioned this, and added that, as a candidate country, Turkey would participate in these discussions. That, i think, is a very healthy standpoint. Sincerely, Hans-Peter