Election Race in Ira
Having been elected president twice, [Muhammad] Khatami is now spending his last days in office. The excitement over the presidential election, scheduled for June 17, has already spread across Iran.
The new president is of paramount important for Turkey. The sensitive balances in the region may be determined by this election. Even though Khatami, who is drawing the wrath of the city dwellers because of his failure in carrying out the promised reforms, appears to have successfully overcome the pressures over nuclear armament, the same cannot be said about the economy. Inflation and unemployment continue to bleed like two exploded veins. One million youths join the labor market every year. Only half of this number are able to find jobs. That the mullahs have centralized the economy, and have everything under their control, has created a bulky bureaucracy. All societal resources are monopolized by the state and no competition is allowed in key sectors. Subventions to wheat and gas amount to billions of dollars, and productivity is very low. Of course, this picture may be quite familiar to you. The government budget is continuously being punctured and economic activities of circles close to the government cannot be stopped. This black hole has not only created an illegal situation but has also made the fight against corruption impossible. The Islamic Republic of Iran, 25 years later, has created a religious elite economy, with the slogan, “for a more just order.” Many people are disappointed. They fear that an aggressive privatization policy would increase the discontentment among the people. The Guardian Council continuously blocks the privatization of banks and other key sectors, saying it contravenes the constitution. How familiar these events are! It can be argued that Iran is stuck between nuclear production and the economy. The US is closely watching that weak link. Deputy Commerce Minister Muhammad Kazai, said: “Iran needs investments to the tune of $20 billion every year.” The oil industry is Iran’s backbone, and if a solution for unemployment is to be sought here, old infrastructures have to be renovated. Iran’s Oil Ministry announced that it needs $70 billion to modernize of the oil infrastructure over the next 10 years. That means foreign capital. The religious elite and corruption are the nightmares of foreign capital. Because the laws can easily be violated. State Planning Organization Chairman Hamid Reza Beraderan says: “The biggest obstacle facing the economy is the US embargo.” As far as relations of both countries are concerned, lifting of the embargo seems very unlikely. However, surveys clearly show that the youths approve of and support relations with the United States. Former chief of police, Muhammad Baqer Qalibaf, who is seen as the most powerful candidate, promises to mend fences with the US. Qalibaf, who had also headed Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, says he is as pragmatic as pragmatist Akbar Hasemi Rafsanjani. Even though he has not declared his candidacy yet, Rafsanjani is preparing to join the election race. Oalibaf is an Iraq war veteran pilot, and by saying, “I believe in something basic, I do not belong the traditional political wings,” he is winning the hearts of the youths. Qalibaf who is a popular candidate with its colorful life and youth, had appointed women into the police force for the first time. Qalibaf, who is also against corrupt military officers, promises privatization and courageously discloses that the greatest hurdle is the state economy. Khatami’s adviser, Ali Akbar Velayeti, will also take part in the election. Ali Larijani has declared himself a candidate for the fundamentalists. Mohsen Rezai is also a candidate from this wing. On the reformist wing, former higher education minister, Mostafa Moin and former parliament speaker, Mehdi Karoubi, are candidates. There are concerns about ethnic division in Iran, where the dosage of nationalism is very high. A march by Arabs during demonstrations in the town of Ahvaz resulted in the death of one person. Kurds and Arabs are worried. The move to change Arab village names into Persian in Iran, where three percent of the population are Arabs, made people pour onto the streets. Meanwhile, 500 Iranian intellectuals have signed a declaration for a constitutional amendment. The disqualification of reformist candidates aroused indignation in the last election. In the meantime, the US Senate has earmarked $3 million to support the advancement of democracy in Iran, for the first time. Iran is a like a garden, very messy, with couch grass and spring boughs blooming side by side. As thorns pierce everybody’s hands, there is no gardener around to clean up the mess. This name [Iran] will remain an important one for Turkey over the next decade. April 19, 2005